ウクライナ戦争はいつ終わる可能性が高いのか

The Ukraine war will likely continue through 2027, with no comprehensive settlement probable before late 2026 at earliest. Current military dynamics favor prolonged attrition rather than decisive resolution.

Escalating Military Commitment

Russia is deepening its war effort rather than preparing for negotiation. Chinese troops are participating in Russia's Tsentr 2026 exercise, signaling tightened military ties that will sustain Russian capabilities. Recent attacks targeting Kyiv's critical infrastructure, including the Northern Bridge, demonstrate Russia's strategy to degrade Ukrainian resilience through incremental damage.

Structural Barriers to Peace

Neither side faces sufficient military pressure to accept unfavorable terms. Ukraine maintains territorial control over roughly 80 percent of its land, removing incentive to concede. Russia controls substantial territory but has not achieved its maximum objectives. Without a major battlefield shift or external diplomatic breakthrough, negotiations will remain stalled. A frozen conflict or de facto ceasefire remains more probable than a formal peace agreement within the next 12 to 18 months.