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A US China trade war would intensify global economic fragmentation, raise consumer costs, and compel nations to diversify trade and supply chain partners.
This scenario would further strain a world economy already experiencing low overall influence and heighten geopolitical tensions.
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Trade Re alignment and Supply Chain Disruptions
A trade war would force rapid re configurations of international trade routes, bypassing tariffs and restrictions. Amid Trump trade war, Canada's exports to China increased 30% in the first half of 2026, demonstrating how nations seek new partners. This re alignment would increase shipping costs and lead to price volatility, even as BRICS nations urge smooth flow of global trade.
Amplified Instability and Protectionism
The global economy, currently operating with a low influence score of 29/100, would become more susceptible to shocks. A trade war would exacerbate protectionist trends, as seen with fear over Kenya's crackdown on foreign traders. This environment would foster greater economic nationalism and complicate international cooperation on critical issues.