När löper Iran-kärnöverenskommelsen ut
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has no formal expiration date.
However, key restrictions on Iranian nuclear activities began expiring in 2025 and will continue through 2031, with the most significant provisions sunsetting between 2025 and 2027.
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Current Status and U.S. Position
The Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, reimposing sanctions. As of 2026, negotiations remain stalled. Vice President Vance recently stated that Iran must cut enrichment levels to end the current standoff, signaling U.S. preconditions for any future agreement.
Regional Escalation
Iran's influence score currently stands at 34 out of 100 in tracked geopolitical signals, with 80 tracked indicators focused on Iranian nuclear activities. Recent developments include proxy conflicts in Yemen and competition for Central Asian oil markets, suggesting Iran is pursuing alternative leverage amid nuclear negotiations deadlock. These parallel tensions complicate any near term diplomatic resolution.