Vladimír Poetin Voorspellingsmarkt Weddenschappen
Prediction markets in 2026 heavily weight Putin's continued control of Russia, with most wagers pricing his political survival through 2027 at 85-90% probability.
However, significant volatility emerges around the scope and duration of the Ukraine conflict, which dominates geopolitical risk pricing.
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Vladimír Poetin Voorspellingsmarkt Weddenschappen
Market Assessment of Stability
Putin maintains an influence score of 100/100 across tracked signals, with 62 signals originating from Russia itself. This suggests domestic institutional control remains consolidated, limiting near term removal scenarios that prediction markets might otherwise price higher.
Ukraine Conflict Duration Bets
Most active wagers focus on whether major hostilities continue beyond 2027. Recent escalations including the Russia hitting Kyiv bridge incident keep conflict continuation bets elevated. Markets show moderate pricing for negotiated settlement, though German Chancellor Merz's warnings about Putin's threat to the West suggest Western powers view escalation risks as substantial through mid 2027.