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Tariff Regime Intensification

The Trump administration continues pushing a hardline tariff agenda globally. Recent G20 discussions show US officials actively urging partners to back expanded tariff measures against China, indicating the administration views escalation, not resolution, as the path forward.

Evasion and Data Gaps

Diverging US China trade data reveals significant tariff evasion schemes. Companies are routing goods through third countries to avoid duties, complicating accurate assessment of trade flows and suggesting neither side has achieved compliance on the terms they seek. Resolution remains distant without structural changes to enforcement.