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When Will the Ukraine War End? Prediction

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Russia and Ukraine remain the dominant signals in active conflict tracking, with 83 and 77 tracked signals respectively. Ukraine continues large scale drone campaigns, including recent attacks involving nearly 900 drones against Russian targets and strikes on fuel infrastructure in the Moscow region. Neither side demonstrates capacity for decisive territorial gains.

Likely Duration

A negotiated settlement requires political conditions that do not currently exist. Absent major geopolitical shifts, the conflict will likely persist in its current attritional form through 2027 and beyond. Historical precedent suggests frozen conflicts of this scale typically last 5 to 15 years minimum. The absence of meaningful diplomatic progress in recent months reinforces this assessment.